Historical averages are not proof of an edge
Win rate and mean outcomes describe a sample. They do not establish a repeatable advantage.
Read the note →SensitivityHow concentrated is a historical result?
Removing selected outliers illustrates sensitivity, not a trading strategy or a forecast.
Read the note →PerformanceGrouping outcomes by holding period
Holding-period groups organise a report without identifying a suitable trading style.
Read the note →PerformanceReading historical time-of-day groups
Session summaries describe when recorded activity occurred, subject to timing and sample limits.
Read the note →ActivityTrade counts and outcomes: correlation has limits
A relationship between daily activity and recorded outcomes does not establish a cause.
Read the note →ExposureDescribing variation in recorded trade size
Size summaries need comparable exposure measures and do not set personal risk limits.
Read the note →RiskReturn and variability: what summary ratios leave out
Ratio names are useful only alongside their assumptions, inputs and limitations.
Read the note →SequencesAfter-loss sequences without psychological labels
Recorded behaviour after a loss can be described without inferring a person’s intentions.
Read the note →Holding periodsComparing holding periods for wins and losses
A duration ratio describes observed records, without proving a behavioural explanation.
Read the note →CostsGross outcomes, recorded costs and net outcomes
A cost breakdown explains arithmetic and missing inputs; it does not select a broker or strategy.
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