A sensitivity view

The original report module compared a complete sample with a copy excluding a few unusually large positive outcomes. This highlights how much the total depends on those observations.

A worked example

An example sample totals +500 units, of which its three largest gains contribute +620 units. Excluding those three produces −120 units. Both figures refer to the same selected historical example; neither is a prospective return estimate.

Why the comparison is limited

Removing winners after seeing the outcome uses hindsight. Some distributions naturally depend on rare large outcomes, so concentration alone neither proves luck nor disproves skill. The exercise cannot identify which future trades to take or avoid.

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The original report module

These notes explain the original design. They are not personalised analysis or investment, trading or financial advice. The creator receives no monetary benefit; the project has no employer or organisation affiliation.